Mark's Board Game Strategy Guides: Settlers of Catan Strategy and Tactics Guide

Showing posts with label Settlers of Catan Strategy and Tactics Guide. Show all posts

Friday, July 2, 2010

More Settlers Strategy

I compiled this from reading a couple Settlers websites:
http://www.catanworld.com/the_games/settlers_of_catan/settle...
This probably the best strategy guide that I found out there, put together by Scott McPherson. Anyone know if he’s on boardgamegeek?

I also read this strategy guide, which was very useful:
http://www.settlersofcatan.net/settlers_of_catan_strategy.ht...

I also put in some of my own thoughts from playing Catan.

Anyone know of more valuable strategy guides to read out there?

Overall strategies:

Wood/brick (leads to longest road)
Build lots of settlements.
Build your future settlements on grain/ore hexes in order to build cities.
Build roads to cut off other players expansion, very useful in cutting off grain/ore players who might not be able to expand as fast as you can.

Grain/ore (leads to largest army)
Robber is a threat – huge target if you are building cities.
Buy development cards to try to get a knight in case robber is sitting on your city.
Only use the knight if the robber is sitting on 1 of your cities, try to save them for this situation to occur.
Focus more on ore than grain since you need 3 ores and 2 grain to build each city.

Try not to put your city on 1 good number and 2 bad numbers, or else the robber can come and make your city worthless.

The grain/ore strategy is generally my favorite strategy to play all things being equal, because it leads to guaranteed cities at the beginning. As long as you have development cards to protect them from the robber, I think it’s a very good strategy to pursue. You can always either expand towards wood/brick by either using the grain/ore to trade to other players since they will likely need it to build cities – which can result in favorable trades for your grain/ore.

Generally you either need the longest road or largest army to win the game, it’s very hard to win without either of them.

Initial settlement placement
Try to get your initial settlements on a total dot count of 11-13, this generally leads to strong resource production. Always put the first 2 settlements on 3 resource hex possibilities (not at the water where there are only 2 possibilities). You don’t want to constrict your resource growth at the start, you can always expand later to the water to grab a port.

Try to spread out your settlements on as many different numbers as possible so that your resource cards don’t come in huge batches – which may lead to robber losses down the road. This is an extremely key point, by doing this you are able to get resources no matter what number is rolled, which leads to steady and consistent building. I saw this approach work first hand last game, my friend had his settlements spread out among basically every number from 4-9 and he thus got resources seemingly every roll of the dice. And his cards came slowly, instead of in big batches.

Review the board at first and try to put a settlement on the rarest resource that you see (either by sheer number of tiles in the game or that the numbers on the tiles are not good), this will become extremely valuable for trading purposes later. Generally it will result in you getting 2 resource cards for your 1 resource card in trading, which can be really valuable for future building.

Expansion/settlements
Build settlements early, since growth is exponential once you get settlements and cities going. This is the most important strategy point – build settlements and cities first, to generate more production later – exponential growth rate.

Also try to go for settlement spots where your opponents are also going for, if you are sure you can get there first, otherwise don’t go for them because it’s just a waste of resources.

Break the longest road if at all possible with a settlement.

Try to get settlements on 3 different types of resources, though if you can’t, put your settlements on:
Wood/brick - settlements
Grain/ore – cities
Sheep are valuable, but generally it seems like sheep are always in high supply, so I generally don’t try to worry too much about getting sheep. It is nice to have at least 1 hex on a sheep, but I don’t worry too much about them.

Generally wood/brick is really valuable early on in the game for building roads and settlements, but then loses some of its value as the game goes along. This is because a lot of people start to build cities using grain/ore. Sheep generally hold the same value throughout the game (or its value goes slightly down), because they are only used in settlements (mainly done early in the game) and development cards (throughout the game).

Expansion opportunity priorities:
1. Go for the spot with the most dots
2. Increase diversity of resources you produce
3. Try to get to a nearby port

Make sure you are not cut off from future expansion opportunities, use roads to make sure of this, watch where your opponents are building towards.

Don’t place settlements just to try to screw others players, only think about yourself first and foremost. If in the process of getting a solid settlement placement you screw another player in the process, then that is great because you accomplished 2 missions in 1 shot.

In terms of settlements/cities, try to put your settlements/cities on hexes that have other players on them as well so that the hex is shared. This can help with keeping the robber off your hexes, since other players are also involved in the hex too.

The riskiest play in my opinion is to completely monopolize a hex (3 cities on 1 hex), this makes you a huge target for the robber, and you better have knights handy to get the robber off that hex in case the robber lands on that hex. I generally wouldn’t recommend monopolizing hexes, because it results in huge swings in terms of the number of cards in your hand, and the robber threat mentioned above. I did this in my last game, and while it did pay off okay (because another player was clearly in the lead the whole game and thus the robber was always on them), I don’t like to do it unless things just work out that way.

Robber/knight tips
If the robber is on your settlement/city before you roll the dice and you have a knight card, play the knight card before you roll so that if you roll the number that the robber was on before, you will get that resource.

Don’t buy too many development cards early on, it constricts your growth rate of resource production. It is much more worthwhile to build roads/settlements/cities because of the exponential growth rate of production if you get things setup early on. Save the development card buying for later once you get your resource production machine running and actually need some knight cards to keep the robber off your cities.

Make sure that you always have less than 7 cards before someone rolls the dice, even if it hurts your trading chances later, in case a 7 is rolled - I have been hit with the robber probably more than anyone else in my gaming group, I know the pain of having a 7 rolled with more than 7 cards in your hand =)

Buy a development card or something else if necessary to avoid having more than 7 cards in your hand before the dice are rolled.

If a 7 is rolled, put the robber on the rare resource hex
Also target cities if possible
Preferably target the current game leader, put it on his rarest resource hex that has a city on it – or try to hurt as many players as possible with the placement. By hurting as many people as possible with the placement, it also helps for later when a 7 is rolled again, so that 1 player doesn’t just target you with the robber if you singled out them the last time.

Count VP points as the game goes along to see who is in first place, and generally target them with the robber.

Trading
Don’t trade with someone if they are about to win the game (ie 7 or 8 VPs) – only trade with people who are behind you or slightly even with you. During the early to middle part of the game it’s generally fine to trade with anyone.

Try to be a part of every trade possible, as long as it helps you as much as your opponent. Don’t just make a trade simply for the fact that you wanted to make a trade – be sure that it helps you as much or more than your opponent.

Ports
Ports are useful – 2:1 ports can be really useful if you can get another settlement on that resource type with a really good number like 6 or 8.

3:1 ports are also useful, they may actually be more useful than 2:1 ports because there is no risk of the robber affecting your port trading ability by someone putting the robber on the hex that is producing the 2:1 port resource (since with a 3:1 port you can trade any resource, but with a 2:1 port it takes one specific resource). And since ports can only be used on your turn, you may want to try to hold out to trade all your resources using your port, putting you at higher risk for the robber.

Placing a settlement near a port at the beginning of the game (but not directly on the port) can be a good idea, because it can give you access in the future to it.

Though try to avoid placing settlements directly on ports early on, as it really constricts your resource production. It is much better early on to have both of your settlements on 3 resource hex possibilities. Later on in the game once your resource production machine is more established you can build a settlement on a port.

Development cards
% deck of development cards is as follows: (this may vary slightly depending on what deck and edition you are using)
Soldier – 48%
Monopoly – 12%
Road building – 12%
Year of plenty – 12%
Victory point – 16%

So generally unless you are going for largest army or just wanted to buy a development card to avoid having more than 7 cards in your had due to the robber – it is likely a better investment to build roads/settlements/cities since they result in guaranteed VPs, whereas it is more of an unknown with development cards. If you are going with the grain/ore strategy I would recommend investing in at least 1 development card to try to get a knight to help keep the robber off your city if at all possible.

Generally, development cards are only a good investment when:
1. You have more than 7 cards in your hand but have no other options to build anything else
2. If you are trying to win with the grain/ore (city) strategy and need knights to keep the robber off your hexes
3. If a lot of development cards have been bought already (and they were soldiers), so there is a better chance that the remaining cards are non-soldier cards

Monopoly card trick
One sneaky trick involves the monopoly card – trading away all of one resource to the rest of the players in exchange for whatever they have, then using the monopoly card to get it all back. So you then have all the resources that you traded for, in addition to the resource that you just traded to the rest of the players. I pulled it off once, and it did work, but my friends weren’t too happy about it =)

Thursday, June 17, 2010

More Settlers Strategy

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Complex Strategies for Settlers of Catan

Complex Strategies for Settlers of Catan
WARNING:

This is a long strategy article. If you don’t want to read giant blocks of text, hit the “back” button on your browser now. It goes very deep into the strategy of Settlers of Catan. It assumes you have played the game at least once, if not more than once. It also assumes that you understand the development cards and the game mechanics.

The Settlers of Catan has been probably the most commercially successful Eurogame of all time. It is arguably the most loved. There was a period between 1990 and 1997 where I did not attend any game conventions. Settlers of Catan was the game that brought me back. I don’t get as many chances to play it anymore. There have been dozens of superb games that have come out in the last two years, and Settlers has been on the back burner for a little while. I have participated in two “Catan Cup Championship” tournaments (held at the Denver game conventions) and I’ve won first place both. I’ve logged hundreds and hundreds of games with people from all over the place and all walks of life. I don’t list these credentials to toot my own horn - I’d just like to let folks know where I’m coming from. These aren’t theoretical strategies. These are the strategies I use and they work. There’s nothing worse than trying out a strategy that someone else believes will work, only to find out that they have no idea what they’re talking about.

I also ask for a bit of leeway here. I am attempting to write a guide on a game that probably everyone on this board has played a hundred or more times. I’m guessing that many people on this board think that they are probably pretty good at this game, too, which will make them read this whole entire piece just waiting for me to slip up so they can say, “No, no, no, it doesn’t work that way. You can’t win doing it like that.” I fully expect to receive criticism and perhaps outright rejection in response to the strategies laid out in this guide. If you want to refute a specific point, please don’t provide “what if” examples. There are always exceptions to every rule of thumb. The point is that I believe this guide will help you be successful more often than not. I believe that using the strategies outlined in this guide, you will always put yourself in a position to win. If you stink at Settlers, this guide will make you better. If you already kill everyone at Settlers, then this guide will show you all of my tips and tricks so that you will also crush me like a bug if we ever play together.

Although there is luck involved in this game, it can be overcome with great strategy. In poker, the best strategy for winning is to get dealt a pair of aces in every hand. Since one can’t control the deal, a different set of strategies must be employed. Likewise, in Settlers the best strategy is to make sure that only your numbers get rolled every time. Again, this is unrealistic. Anyone who believes that poker is purely a lucky game need only look at the final tables at the World Series of Poker. It usually has one or two new faces, but by and large it is filled with the same old grizzled veterans. If playing poker is just about getting the luckiest cards, then why do the same guys keep getting to the final table? The answer is “skill.” The same can be said of Settlers. Regardless of the “luck factor,” it is generally the same group that competes for the top prizes at the tournaments.

In this article, I will cover placement and early expansion strategies, strategic use of the robber, resource negotiations, and development card use. Although I will not go into detail about Seafarers or Cities and Knights, many of the techniques in this guide can be applied to both.

I will discuss both three and four player games. I will not cover two, five, or six player games. All two player games are at best, sub-standard variants. Playing with only two eliminates the negotiation aspect of the game. The five and six player games are not fun, in my opinion. Generally, at least one, if not two players get trapped, unable to expand, right off the bat. With virtually no chance of winning, they slog through the remainder of the game just wishing it were over. I would rather everyone be actively involved and having fun. Although the placement and early expansion advice will be useful to people playing against computer AI, the rest of it won’t really apply. Computers think in probabilities and statistics. You can’t get a computer to “trust you” or to “owe you one”.

PLACEMENT AND EARLY EXPANSION:

The initial placement in this game is very important. If you do it correctly, you put yourself in a position for victory. If you do it wrong, then it’s going to be the longest hour of your life knowing that you just can’t muster any resources, or grow beyond your first two cities. I’d say about 25% of the game is won or lost before the dice are ever rolled.

I have encountered use strategies like, “Go for wood and brick so that you can make lots of roads.” Other players cite mantras like, “Ore builds cities and soldiers, so try to get on a lot of good ore spots.” Obviously your game can be stagnated without wood and brick in the beginning. Likewise, without any ore, you won’t be able to buy anything at all during the endgame. It is possible, however, for ore to end up on the 2, 3, and 12 spaces. In this case, “going for ore” isn’t really that smart a strategy. The same can happen with wood/brick. If either of these strategies was a dominant one, they would work all the time. Since they don’t, there must be some other more deterministic mechanic at work.

I’m going to set this next bit apart in asterisks because it is pretty much the core to this guide. After you read it, if you decide you can live with it, please continue on through the rest of the guide.

******** Most important part of the entire guide *************
I am going to give you my absolute most valuable tip. At the end of a few games of settlers, write down where folks put their first two cities with regard to vertices. Don’t worry about whether or not the vertices have ore, wheat, wood, or whatever. Just write down the numbers. As each person places a new settlement, write down the vertices of where these go. Write down where they built there first city – was it on an 8/5/4 vertex or a 6/3/11 vertex? Remember, what resources they actually get is totally unimportant, just the numbers.

There are always anomalies, but over the long haul, you’ll find that MOST of the people who win are winning because they have a good distribution of numbers – regardless of what their stated strategy is. A person will often say, “Oh, well, I just tried to get all the ore in the game.” But is that really how they won? Or is it possible that they inadvertently employed some other strategy that had far more to do with the outcome than simply “get all the ore.” Keeping a log of wins/losses, and starting/ending number distribution, will show you over a number of games what’s really working for the winners.

The key to understanding how to win the game isn’t to work from front to back, it’s to work from back to front. After someone wins, figure out what vertices they started on, what direction they expanded, and how they did it. What kind of number distribution did they end up with? What kind did they start with?

I am a big fan of the book “Moneyball,” a baseball book that I highly recommend to gamers. It talks about general managers in baseball trying to find good talent to draft. How do you know who to draft? How do you know if a kid is going to turn out to be the next Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, or Albert Pujols? The answer is simple – look at Jeter, Rodriguez, and Pujols when they were kids and see what kind of numbers they put up. Then find players like that. The book “Moneyball” suggests that it isn’t the number of homeruns a player hits in college, it’s the number of walks. If you see a player that gets a lot of walks, they probably have great plate discipline, which is what ultimately will lead to homeruns in the future. Although on its surface, it’s about baseball, in reality it’s about how to measure success so that it can be repeated. This is something that doesn’t just apply to baseball, it applies to games as well.

People will keep telling you that Settlers is about the resources, but I promise you, it is about the numbers. If I can’t convince you of that, you should probably stop reading right here. If you can suspend your disbelief long enough to continue, I think you’ll find some really great stuff in here.
***************************************************************

Ok, continuing on with initial placement strategy…

The best strategy of all is to diversify – and I’m not talking about resources. You should try to get on as many different numbers as possible to ensure that whatever gets rolled, you get a resource. Above all else, it is of paramount importance to get a good spread of numbers. Grabbing 6, 8, 5, 9, 4, and 10, are a first priority. You may also eventually want to expand to 3 and 11 if there is a particularly valuable or rare commodity on those hexes. For example, if sheep is only available on hexes 2, 3, and 11, you will probably eventually want to build toward a 3 or 11 hex. Both 3 and 11 can be ignored throughout the game, however.

Having a good distribution of numbers allows you to always get resources. The name of the game in Settlers is cards. If you don’t have cards, you can’t play. If you can’t play, you can’t win. I would rather have two sheep cards than none at all. And, I would rather have ten sheep cards than one ore and one brick. I cannot stress this enough. I know I’m going to get people saying “Would you put your marker on the 5/6/9 vertex if all three were sheep?” The answer is “Absolutely.” My second placement would obviously provide me with a couple of other resources, and I would likely be able to trade sheep in to the bank for something useful. This strategy would obviously require some kind of port, but ignoring a good spread of numbers for any reason is a good way to get beat. If you like the ore strategy or the brick strategy, by all means, you can still usually pick one or the other. But if you fail to get a good distribution of numbers, chances are high that you won’t have enough cards to trade in order to put yourself in a position to win. The “lucky” part of this game is the dice rolling. If you have a settlement on all (or nearly all) of the numbers, you’ve eliminated much of the “luck” involved.

Most of the time, you will get shut out of either a 6 or an 8 at the beginning of the game. If the first two players lock down the 6, the third player may position his first settlement on the other 6 hex such that your only other placement would be on a vertex that contains the 6 and 12, or the 6 and 2. If this is the case, you may just have to play without a 6 to start. No matter. Try for an 8, 5, 10 vertex, then look for something with a 4 and a 9. Position your roads so that you can build toward the 6 later in the game.

If for any reason, the 5/6/9 vertex is available in the game, take it. Depending on where the desert falls in the game, this vertex may or may not be present on the board. Taking this vertex not only gives you amazing numbers, but it will foul up the 5/6/x, the 5/9/x, and the 6/9/x spots. Your opponents will be left with substantially inferior slot choices.

If you are playing first or second, I highly recommend getting on one of the 6 hexes first. The reason is that generally there will be an 8/4 or an 8/10 port available on the board. I would say in about 50% of my games, my second placement is on one of these ports. I generally don’t even worry about the type of port I am on. It’s more important that I get the numbers I need.

Road placement at the beginning is also crucial. The biggest rookie mistake I see is someone pointing their road toward an extremely valuable slot. You know that someone is going to stick one of their first two settlements there, so why would you point a road down that direction? Your first couple of roads should be pointed toward a 4, 10, 3, or 11 – whichever ones you don’t have. Getting your third settlement down in these spots is sure better than missing on a chance at a 5 or a 9 because someone built there first. You may also be able to point your road toward a less desirable 6 spot, such as one near a 2 or a 12.

As a general rule, do not point your roads toward the center of the board. It’s going to get crowded there and you won’t have enough room to breath. I try to point my roads toward the coast. If I don’t have a port already, this gets me my first one. The key is to allow yourself room to move. You need to be able to build a combination of at least four cities/settlements. Keep that in mind. It’s possible to win with fewer than four settlements/cities, but it’s not easy, and it can’t be done consistently. By and large, people win with at least four or more. During your first placement, you need to guess not only where other people are going to go first, but where they are likely to expand. I know that ignoring the middle of the board seems goofy, but it will work. I play for the edges because I can guarantee my ability to put a settlement there. If I work toward the middle, I might get a settlement in – but if I don’t, then I lose for sure.

THE ROBBER:

You’re always supposed to place the robber on the person with the most victory points, right? Or, wait, you’re supposed to place it on a 6 or 8 so that it takes out someone’s best number, correct? Or was it that you should try to put it so that it affects as many people as possible? And of course, you never want to put the robber on someone holding development cards because they probably have a soldier, and they’ll just put it right back on you won’t they?

Once in a while, one of the above strategies for the robber may be correct. If someone has nine victory points, and a handful of cards, putting the robber on them probably is the best idea. At the end of the game, placing the robber is pretty easy to figure out. But, what about in the beginning of the game? What about the middle? Placing the robber in the early/middle of the game will absolutely have one intended effect – someone will not like you for putting it on them. If you’ve hit someone with a robber early and they roll a seven, where do you think it’s going to end up next? Chances are, it will end up on you.

“Ah ha!” you say. “Now I’ve got you. You’re about to tell me to put the robber on a space that doesn’t hurt anyone just to be nice, aren’t you?” Absolutely not. Trying to make peace by not taking a card with the robber is always a bad idea. The whole advantage of getting a seven is that you get a card, someone else loses a card, and nothing good happens for the other two. If you just make the robber go back to the desert, you’ve wasted your entire turn. When you place the robber, though, you are going to make enemies, so you’d better not choose someone that can hurt you too badly.

You should also make sure that you only affect one player with the robber. Affecting two players doubles the revenge factor, as well as doubles the motivation to move it with a soldier card. If only one person is affected, then the robber will probably spend longer on that spot. As a rule of thumb, in the early/middle game, you should place the robber on the player to your right. The reason is that it will spend more time there. The player to your right can’t take the robber off for two or three more rolls, which is great.

Now, if the player to your left or the player across from you rolls a seven, the robber will move. But, they might remember your kindness and not hit you with it when it comes around. If the player to your right rolls a seven, you can bet it’s probably coming back your way. Early in the game, this revenge factor may not make sense, but later, when soldiers are in play, it will have a huge effect.

If you have an unplayed soldier, you can minimize any robber damage from the player on your right. He can place it on you and take a card, but it will only affect one roll. After that, it will be your turn. You can move the robber with your soldier and stick it back on the player to your right for three more rolls before he can do anything about it. Meanwhile, you’re building up credibility and trust with the other two players by not ever putting the robber on them. This will make them less likely to put the robber on you, which works out pretty well.

So, to sum up, the player on your right is easy to mess with because you can instantly get back at him with a soldier, or a lucky seven roll. The player on your left should be avoided when you roll the robber. You simply can’t afford to get into a soldier war with that player. It will stay on you for three times longer than it stays on him/her. If you’re messing with the player across from you, then it’s a pretty fair fight. I don’t like fair fights, though. I’d rather have the advantage. This strategy works so well for me that no one in my family wants to sit to my right ever. It’s gotten to the point where we roll for both turn order and seat position. How do you know a strategy is good? When people will fight like cats and dogs not to have it used on them.

The important thing to note about messing with the player on your right is not to be a jerk. Always give a reason why you are playing the robber on them. Don’t say, “Well, I read a guide and it said to put in on the player to my right, so that’s what I am doing.” Instead say, “Well, we rolled wheat a couple of turns ago and I really needed one.” That person may come back with – “Well, you just got two wheat.” Just say, “Oh, I was trying to go for a 3 for 1 trade.” If they want to know why you didn’t just steal the actual resource you wanted, play dumb. Most people think that they are great at Settlers since it’s been around so long. The “Aw shucks” attitude really goes a long way. Even if you win all the time, you can just tell people that you’re just really lucky and they’ll believe you. Meanwhile, employ the best strategy for winning and let them think what they want. I have to admit, the “Aw shucks” routine is a little tough for me to pull off these days. After I won the first Catan Cup, folks said, “Man, he sure is lucky.” After the second, it was, “Hey, didn’t that guy win last year? Hmmm….” As for my family? Forget about it. They know what I’m up to. I still work the same strategies, but they make it much tougher on me.

Should you put the robber on a person if they have an unused development card? Definitely. I know that it means that it will probably just get put right back on you, but at least they’ll have to wait two or three rolls to do it. Sometimes you just have to take a punch in the mouth from that soldier to get it played. Who knows, you might discover that the card they are holding isn’t a soldier at all – and wouldn’t that be a valuable piece of information to have?

I like to see all of my opponents development cards face up. The only way to make that happen is to put the robber on them. You may need to convince the other players to put the robber on someone with a dev card, too (especially if it’s the player to your left). I can usually throw something out like, “Man, I wish we could make him use that soldier, then he couldn’t hold it over our heads for the whole game.” The real reason the soldier is valuable isn’t because he can move the robber – it’s because he can threaten to move the robber. Once the soldier has done it, the threat is over and the player has no more protection. By the same token, I love getting one early development card just so I can say, “Well, you could put the robber on my, but I’ll just put it right back. Why don’t you put it on the other guy? He has no protection.” Ah, soldiers. It’s like holding off three bad guys with one bullet. Sure, you can only shoot one of them, but who’s going to volunteer?

Playing the robber well and not getting it played as much yourself is another 25% of this game. Good robber management is probably the hardest part of the game, because it is the one where you have the least direct control. You can only control where a robber goes when you roll a seven or play a robber. It’s impossible to control how people will react to it.

RESOURCE NEGOTIATION:

I talk at the table a lot. I talk across the table. I talk to two players trading with each other, even when I’m not involved. I would never tell people not to take a deal that another player offers. If you do that, most of the time, they’re going to make that deal anyway, and then neither one of them will trust you. I try to tell people that they are making good moves, surprising moves, and that they drive a hard bargain when I am trading. Sometimes it’s true, sometimes it’s not. The important thing is that I am being nice.

**edit**
There is some debate about whether or not talking during a trade is acceptable. According to the Rules Guru at Mayfair games (rulesguru@mayfairgames.com), it is. Here is a link which goes over this rule: http://web.archive.org/web/20080221100724/http://www.universityofcatan.com/faq/faqq48304.html. For those of you who don't want to click the link, I will lay out the question and answer here:

Q: Are players allowed to suggest trades when it is not their turn?
A: Yes. The rules state that you may only trade if the player who is taking his turn is included in the trade, but there is no rule that states that you can not negotiate a trade when it is not your turn.
**end of edit**

Some people like to be jerks in this game. Why? Because no one wants to put the robber on a big, whining, complaining, jerk, If you put the robber on a jerk, you’re probably going to have to hear about it for the next 50 minutes. However, the same people that won’t put the robber on a jerk also won’t trade with the jerk unless it is important. They’ll always trade with the nice guy. In fact, even if they have just put the robber on me, they will probably make up for it by trading with me later out of pity. “Well, I did put the robber on you, so I guess I’ll make the trade with you instead of with the other guy.” Again, the “aw shucks” should work like a charm.

If someone wants to trade something and you are the only one offering, try to get them to wait until your turn to trade it. Trading another player on his turn benefits him greatly because he can use his new cards right away. Trading with someone on your turn will benefit you more than them for the same reason. You may need to make up an excuse like, “Oh, man, if I have the card you need, but I need it to. If I get the roll I am looking for, I can trade it. Just let me roll first.” If they can live with that, you’ve done very well for yourself, and haven’t benefited them too much, because you’ve made them wait a turn to employ their strategy. To sum up, it’s better to trade on your turn than on someone else’s turn.

I would also encourage you to trade a lot. You may even want to make neutral trades that don’t help you that much if there is more than one person involved. Let’s say you are player 1. Player two wants to give a sheep in exchange for a wood. You don’t really need a sheep. Player 3 pipes up and says, “I’ll do it.” At that point, you may want to jump in. If the wood isn’t vital to what you’re trying to do, then just make the trade. If you allow two other players to trade with each other, chances are good that they both got stronger. Meanwhile, you stayed the same. I sometimes even make trades that are disadvantageous to me (breaking up a wood/brick, or a wheat/sheep/ore to take something else) just to prevent two other players from both becoming stronger. Knowing when to just keep trading and when to let other people trade with each other is more of an art than a science. It takes time to know when you should jump in and when you should let it go. Just remember – when a trade happens that you aren’t involved in, two other people just got a little better, and you didn’t.

You may also want to altogether interrupt trades on someone else’s turn. As a warning, this can make them angry if you do it too often. An interrupt is when you encourage people not to trade with the player who currently holds the dice and instead to wait for your turn. In exchange for waiting for your turn, perhaps you sweeten the deal, or give them the card they really want instead of a substitute. If you’re interrupting someone’s trade turn, you may want to make it the guy on your right. After all, you’re probably robbing the heck out him and he’s probably already mad enough at you that irking him a little more won’t matter.

If you’re going to hold resources hostage, don’t lord that fact over people. If you’re the only one on a decent Brick number, that doesn’t mean you can start demanding things. That will probably just anger people and make you the target of a lot of robbers. If people offer me only one resource for my valuable brick, I always say things like, “Yeah, I know these have been tough to get. But I’m having trouble getting both wood and wheat, so I guess I’ll just hold off trading this brick until I have some extra and I can get both wood and wheat.” If the situation is desperate enough that they will trade two resources, they will offer two resources. If they aren’t willing to part with two, then that thought will never cross their mind. Don’t EVER ask for two resources in exchange for your one. People will immediately think you’re trying to get the best of them. If you need two resources for say one wheat, then just hold up the wheat and say, “Anybody have anything for this?” The first offer will be, “I’ll give you a wood.” Another player might say, “I’ll give you an ore.” Just keep playing the “Gee, I don’t know…” card until someone offers two resources. When you come right out and ask for a two for one, people think you’re a shark. Let them come to you and there won’t be any bad feelings when the trade is done. If no one is willing to offer two resources for your one, then it wasn’t going to happen anyway. Specifically asking for a 2 for 1 wouldn’t have made it happen for you, but it would have blown your cover as a shark. It is perfectly acceptable to offer two resources to get one back. Remember, don’t sound shark-ish. Don’t make them coax the second resource out of you. If you know you want to offer two, just offer two right off the bat.

I can’t stress it enough: Be nice. Another 25% of this game is won with good negotiation. If you aren’t nice, people won’t trade with you when you need it most. If people won’t trade with you, you’ll lose.

DEVELOPMENT CARDS:

Knowing when and how to play these cards is the final 25% of winning the game. A single well-played and timely development card can turn your fortunes from hopeless to victorious.

Soldier:

Well, the card you are most often going to see is the soldier. I only have a couple of rules of thumb about a soldier. I always like to have at least one soldier in front of me. I like to get one as early in the game as possible – sometimes trading even an early road to get one. Having the threat of that soldier can keep the robber off of you for around half the game. At worst, it can still thwart one attempt to take out your best number.

By the time two more more players have reached six victory points, you probably can’t afford to leave more than one robber face down. Remember, you can only play one development card per turn. If the end sneaks up on you and you need to make largest army, you may not have enough time to keep flipping over soldiers. Not to mention that if you have to use a soldier, you can’t use one of the other great cards in the deck.

Road Building:

The road building card is my personal favorite development card. You should use it ONLY when you are prepared to build a settlement at the END of it. If you just need one road to build your settlement, then I’d hold off until later in the game to use road building. The key to building a settlement is to make sure you get use out of BOTH roads. If you use one, then just jut the other one off into nowhere, you’ve really wasted the power of this card.

If you already make great wood and bricks, you may just want to hold this until near the end of the game. At that point, you could come from behind and take the longest road with one fell swoop. Also, at that point in the game, most people will have figured that it is a single victory point, not that you’d be able to get two with it.

Discovery:

This card allows you to choose any two resources you want. I would only use this card to upgrade a settlement to a city. The real advantage here is that you basically get to hold two cards over your hand limit with impunity. It can be tough to build a city without having to hold to many cards. If you are in a pinch, you could also use it for a road. I can only recommend this if you are fighting for position with another player, or if you risk getting boxed in without enough room for growth. The point of the non-soldier development cards is to score some points. If you aren’t scoring points with the non-soldier cards, you’re wasting them.

Monopoly:

Great card. However tempting it may be to use this to build a city, resist the urge. This card should ONLY be used at the end of the game. If you get it on turn one, you should hold it all the way until the end. This card is a big finisher card. This is the one you use to come out of nowhere and seal the deal. If you hold onto one of these sufficiently long, you can fool people into thinking it is a single victory point. With this card, you should be able to score at least two victory points, if not three. If you aren’t getting two victory points or more with this card, wait longer. This one, more than any other, burns a hole in peoples pockets. They know they have it and they’re just itching to use it. Patience, patience, patience. When you use this card, you’re going to build up some ill will. If the game is over (or practically over) when you use it, then it doesn’t matter.

What should you take with Monopoly? Well, basically, whatever there is a ton of. I like to keep my eye on the supply pile. If any supply pile is particularly low, I know that there is a ton of that resource out on the table. It is better to take lots of something you don’t need rather than one or two of something you need desperately, especially if you can trade your newfound cards at a port.

There is a dirty trick that some people play with this card. That is, if you have lots of wheat, lets say, you trade it all away to the other players. At that point, you pull out the monopoly and take back all the wheat you just gave out. This is way, way, way, dirty. This single maneuver is so filthy that it will never ever be forgotten by anyone who experienced it, saw it, or heard about it. Even though you arguably get the same number of cards as just stealing a bunch of something else, people will really, really, hate this one. It just feels wrong. Don’t get me wrong, this is a powerful play, but if you do it, you’ll have a hard time ever convincing anyone that you’re a “nice guy” ever again. If you’re in a tournament and you want to pull this move, you’d better wait until the final table at near the end of the game. I’ve seen a guy pull this trick earlier than the final and he got shut out of the rest of the games. If you pull this move, people will you as a shark from then on out. There will be no more “aw shucks” after you do this, so be warned. I would never pull this move at a Con or a tournament. I always try to break this out on my family. Why? Well, they already know I’m a shark, so I don’t really take a big ding to my reputation when I pull this maneuver.

Victory Point:

Whenever I pull a soldier, I let people know it’s a soldier if they ask. Again, the intimidation faction of unplayed soldiers is great. No matter what other type of development card I pull, if someone asks me what I got, I tell them “It’s a victory point.” Why? Because I don’t want them to know about my a road building, monopoly, or discovery that I plan to pull out later. Any of those other cards might make them less likely to trade with me. I never bluff and say that I have a soldier I don’t have. That makes me look like a liar right away. As soon as the robber is put on me and I can’t do anything about it, they know I’m a shark. Cover blown. My cover will eventually be blown when I show them that the card is actually a monopoly instead of a VP, but hopefully by then I can win. Remember, if your cover is blown on the last turn, people pat you on the back and say, “Well played.” If they catch you in the middle, they won’t let you get that far. A good deal of this game is about bluffing. If you’ve ever played poker, though, you know that if you bluff a lot, you lose a lot. If you’re going to bluff, make sure it’s going to help you win.

CONCLUSION:

So there it is. Thanks for getting all the way through it. If you think that the Settlers gods have cursed you and that you simply can’t win, try some of these ideas. I think you’ll see your “luck” change before your eyes.

Credit: Brad Cooper

Last edited on 2007-08-21 11:08:42 CST (Total Number of Edits: 1)

Saturday, January 31, 2009

Settlers of Catan Strategy and Tactics Guide

Settlers of Catan Strategy and Tactics Guide (June 6, 2004 Version)

Compiled by Scott MacPherson

Refer to the end for notes on the attribution method used in this guide, contact info, and reprinting conditions.

As a general note, this guide attempts to stay away from sweeping generalizations of what strategy or tactic is "best". There is seldom a best strategy or tactic (such as "always build a city if x happens, or a settlement if y happens"). Instead, I try to represent each concept as a series of choices to be made, and the advantages and disadvantages of each. Settlers has too many factors (many beyond your control) to come up with some sort of formula to win in every situation. Instead, you need to be flexible and adapt as the game progresses. Don't be afraid to try out new strategies, as you may need them someday.

This guide assumes you have only the Kosmos (German version) or Mayfair (US version) Basic set. Many discussions also refer to elements of the 5-6 Player Expansion set, and the Kosmos Seefahrers / Mayfair Seafarers expansion set (referred to as "Seefahrers" in this guide). These two expansions, while adding some new game elements and rules, do not substantially change the overall game mechanics. Later editions will address the Stadt and Ritter Expansion in a separate section, as it in essence creates a new game.

OVERALL STRATEGIES

Your choice of strategies will influence your initial setup and overall game play. The separation of strategies below is a bit artificial, but useful to understand the concepts behind them. In practice, players will use a combination of these strategies.

*The Ore-Grain Strategy

*This seems to be the most popular strategy, at least in the basic game. This strategy attempts to get a lot of ore and grain early in the game, in order to produce cities as quickly as possible. You should focus more on ore than grain, as you will need three ores to build a city, versus two grains (and in the basic game, there is usually less ore available then grain, as there are only three ore hexes compared to four grain hexes).

This strategy is often so powerful because the first cities you produce will probably be on your initial settlements, which should have high production values. Other people going for settlements right off will probably be left with lower production-value intersections. (Chuck Messenger )

This strategy lends itself to getting the largest army, as after you build your cities you will have lots of ore and grain left over to buy cards, of which the majority will be knights. For a game that needs ten victory points (like the basic game), four cities and the largest army means a win.

In general, the more congested the board, the harder this strategy becomes. Other players (especially wood-brick players, as described below) will have a greater expansion potential as they can pump out roads and settlements faster, thereby blocking off your expansion. All too often a player at the endgame will find themselves with the maximum of four cities and zero settlements for eight victory points, and not being able to get another two settlements (and corresponding victory points) because they are boxed in. In the basic game this is not as much as a dilemma as you can get another two points with the largest army or by victory point cards; in games where you need more victory points this can be more problematic. When playing with (or against) this strategy, you must keep in mind its greatest weakness is this lack of expansion potential.

The Ore-Grain Strategy can be good for Seefahrers, as it is harder to get boxed in (simply build to an island). Getting an ore or grain port is great for this strategy, as after you build four cities you won't have as much a need for these resources, and it can make the endgame a lot easier.

Remember that by building cities, you are concentrating production in fewer locations. As you are putting more of your eggs in fewer baskets, make sure you don't leave any vulnerable. As pointed out by someone else later in this guide, make sure that you don't place your cities at an intersection with one good number and two bad numbers, or the robber can make your very expensive city worthless. This will be much less of a problem to players who are concentrating on (many) settlements rather than on (fewer) cities. For this same reason, those variants that use multiple robbers/pirates can hurt people who concentrate on cities more.

Near the end of the game you will be the constant target of the robber, as ore and grain become valuable to the other players. You need to have been saving knights so that you can get the robber off your production units. Also, since you have cities, your production spaces will naturally look like better places for the others to put the robber. (Trevor Hyde <5puDE6hydet@mLETEu.edu>)

*The Wood-Brick Strategy

*This is a strategy to get a lot of wood and brick early in the game, in order to build settlements and roads fast.

A wood/brick port is very useful in this strategy, as finding a way to get ore/grain will be important to build cities for the middle to end game.

Lots of people think this strategy is less effective on a small or congested board, as you need room to grow. Actually, it can be more effective, as your increased road building capability gives you the advantage in reaching those limited number of expansion spots first. An ore-grain player's worst nightmare is playing on a congested board with one or two wood-brick players.

This strategy naturally lends itself to getting the longest road.

For this strategy, it is very important that you build new settlements around open grain and ore hexes, or you will have a very difficult time trying to build cities later on in the game (which can be crucial for a win).

Optionally, with your increased settlement production, you can build on a number of ports to get ore and wheat. (Mike Schneider )

With your increased road building capability, you should build your roads to cut off other player's expansion. This can help in denying Ore/Grain players from acquiring enough building sites they need to win the game. (Greg Aleknevicus ) This leads into the next variant, which takes this to more of an extreme:

The "Road Boy" variant works to build roads fast in order to block off other players' expansion. This strategy concentrates on building roads first, rather than on production. Only when you are done blocking people off do you work on getting enough victory points to win the game. This requires a lot of wood and brick, so your first cities should be on these, rather than ore. Trade aggressively for wood and brick, before it's obvious you might be a threat. (Mike Schneider ) This is an interesting variant in that it violates my general philosophy of building up production first. It could work better on smaller boards with less people, so you don't miss blocking anyone. In addition, it might not work well in many Seefahrers scenarios, as people could just build to islands.

*The Card Builder Strategy

*This strategy is similar to the Ore/Grain Strategy, as it involves getting Ore/Grain hexes and building two cities fast. Then, cranking out development cards. This player will get an inordinate number of Knight cards, allowing them to keep the robber off their hexes and get other resources by stealing from other players. Often, victory point cards will come up. At some point in the game, try for a third settlement or city. The largest army is practically guaranteed. (Chuck Messenger ). Note that this strategy may not work very well in higher victory point games, or those Seefahrers scenarios where extra victory points are awarded for getting to islands.

*The Balance Strategy

*This strategy strives for a balance in all five resources. Settlements can be built relatively quickly, and the player is less likely to be boxed in. Also, this strategy leads people to become more self-sufficient, and less likely to require trading. (Chuck Messenger ) A 3:1 port could be very useful here.

This strategy is what a lot of players strive for in the initial setup. This is a powerful way to begin the game if you can do it, as it is easy to be flexible and change to another strategy later on.

*The Rare Resource Strategy

*A friend let me know I was missing this one in a previous version of this guide, and AllenDoum mentioned it as well in the first edition of the guide but I put it in setup section rather than the overall strategy section, which was a mistake:

Examine the board to see which commodity will be the hardest to get, and consider putting one of your settlements on the best tile for that commodity. A supply of a rare commodity may be more important than an extra 2/36 chance of a sheep. (AllenDoum )

Basically, this strategy is about identifying the rarest resources, and making sure you have access to them. There are two types of rare: rare in overall production (due to bad numbers being on them), and rare in position availability (fewer number of hexes have the resource, like ore and brick in the basic game, which only has three hexes each instead of four hexes like wool, grain, and wood). In many cases both will happen, such as when ore and brick have bad numbers on them in the basic game.

This strategy is not a monopoly: you don't necessarily want to be the only person on these hexes (as seen in the Monopoly strategy below, this may not be such a good idea). You just want to make sure you have them. This could be taken to the extreme, for example a player who goes for ore and brick, because they are the two rarest, but is more commonly used along with another strategy. This strategy can work well with a Cartel strategy, described below.

The crux of this strategy is realizing that you will pay dearly for rare resources later on in the game, and so you should plan ahead by getting them early. A reduced overall production value early in the game to get those rare resources is usually more than offset by not making 3:1 or 4:1 trades later in the game to get them.

*The Common Resource Strategy

*Every game usually has a very common resource, that no one in particular wants. This is usually wool, as it is often the odd man out. The Wood-Brick players and Ore-Grain players (the two most popular strategies) will only be trying for wool if it is convenient. A friend of mine () sometimes likes to go after wool hexes, and calls it the "Sheep-O-Matic" strategy. Since both Ore-Grain and Wood-Brick strategies need wool, he can often trade somewhat easily. He goes for a wool port (the Sheep-O-Matic) to get cards he can't trade for. He does best by combining this strategy with the Card Builder strategy. This would probably work well in Seefahrers, where everyone needs wool for sails. This strategy doesn't necessarily require wool, just any common resource that no one seems to want. You really need the port though, or you can kiss the game goodbye. This is similar to the Cartel strategy, described below.

*The Monopoly and Cartel Strategies

*These are strategies to gain either exclusive control (monopoly) or shared control (cartel) of a particular resource, usually ore or brick as they have the fewest number of hexes in the basic game (three, versus four of all the others).

First, the Monopoly variant, to gain more or less exclusive control. It is usually attempted by trying to control all of the good hexes (usually just one) of a resource by yourself. It seldom works. The major problem with this strategy is that the robber almost always sits on the monopolized hex. As you are the only person on that particular hex, the robber will stay there until YOU get it off (or a seven is rolled), unlike shared hexes. Also unlike shared hexes, every player EXCEPT YOU considers that hex to be fair robber placement territory, especially since they want a chance to grab that monopolized resource from your hand.

A potentially better way to try the monopoly strategy is to let other players surround the best hex of that resource, and to go for the two less marginal ones (in the case of ore and brick). Then try to place the robber on the good hex throughout the game. This has the advantage of being able to place your initial settlements away from the rest of the crowd. You will need a lot of lot of knights, to get the robber off of you, and onto the best hex. (Mike Schneider ). This would be good combined with the Card Builder strategy (to get the knights), especially if you are trying to monopolize ore or wheat.

If someone in your group has the nerve to try a monopoly, it will become apparent very soon, probably in the initial setup. You can use this to your advantage by remembering that ports have just become more valuable real estate, and by using the monopoly player as a lighting rod for other players aggression instead of you (and drawing people's attention off of your own designs.)

The Cartel variant. Basically, this is a strategy to share control of a particular resource in order to reduce the problem of the robber in a monopoly, but to make sure that you are the dominant player in that cartel. In this variant it is only necessary to control most of the resource. For example, if you control two out of the three settlement locations on a good hex of a rare resource. The other player will work just as hard to keep the robber away, but will only collect half as much. This is most common on a good ore hex. Another way this can be done is by having majority access to several hexes for a commodity for which you have a port. The other players can't keep the robber on all of them, and will probably just keep it on your prime hex. Sheep and wheat are most typical of this kind of cartel, because they are not the commodities that people usually target during initial placement. (Mike Schneider ) Note that this is very similar to the Common Resource Strategy.

Similar to the Monopoly variant, you will need a lot of knights to keep the robber away, and preferably on your opponents most productive hexes, or on a resource your opponent has a port for (so they can't trade easily for your resource). In this way, if you find yourself in total control you can make really good trades. Depending on your group, you can make 3:1 trades if people are desperate, and even turn these down if you are ahead, and force them to make 4:1 bank trades. (Mike Schneider )

*The Straight Numerical Advantage Strategy

*This strategy really tries to maximize production, without concentrating on any particular resource. Just get as much of anything. You may need to trade a lot, because you could end up with a strange mix. This works better in games with more people (more people to trade with). A 3:1 port is probably essential, if you have a varied mix of resources.

I put this in because some people use it, but this is not really a strategy. A good strategy is a plan to let you get the particular combination of resources you need to get certain victory points, which this does not do. This could be good in the initial setup as a short-term plan, before you figure out what other strategy you will need to win.

INITIAL SETUP

The initial setup should take into account a number of factors. Note that a lot of the information below is also applicable whenever a new settlement is built.

1) Production Value. Before you place settlements, figure out how much the intersection will produce. First, a refresher on the number distribution of two six-sided dice, for those of you unfamiliar with the bell curve. Below is the number of times (out of 36) that a particular number shows up:

Number on die / chance number comes up out of 36:

2:...1
3:.....2
4:.......3
5:.........4
6:...........5
7:.............6
8:...........5
9:.........4
10:.....3
11:...2
12:.1

So if you have a settlement on a 3/5/10 intersection, the chance that it will produce something that turn will be 2/36 (the chance a three will be rolled) + 4/36 (the chance for the five) + 3/36 (the chance for the ten), or 9 out of 36 in total. The ranking for this intersection, then, is 9. Any intersection can be ranked on just production value from zero (the edge of a desert on the water) to 15 (the intersection of three hexes having an 8 or a 6). Note that an intersection ranked 14 or 15 is not supposed to happen in the basic game (as an 8 or 6 hex should not occur next to each other), so the effective range is zero to 13. The intersection with the highest rank should get you more resources.

On some newer Mayfair versions of the game, the number tiles have from one to five little circles on them, giving you the odds out of 36 that number will be rolled. Just add them up to get the rank.

Don't have the new Mayfair edition, but want an easy way to remember how to rank an intersection? For each number tile surrounding the intersection, figure out the difference between that number and seven. Add them up, and subtract the total from 18.

The rank of the intersections on which you place your first settlements is (in my opinion) the most important factor to consider in the initial setup. The other factors below should be considered only after figuring out how much they will decrease your overall production value, and if it is worth it.

2) Strategy you will use. Of course, a straight production value is less useful (maybe a LOT less useful) if you are not getting the combination of resources you need.

3) Six and eight hexes. Don't just automatically place on a six or an eight hex because it has the highest production value, or because those chits are marked in red. Just because that particular hex has a good production value does not mean the overall intersection does too. Look at the rankings for all the good intersections. If two intersections both have the same ranking (for example a 6/10/4 intersection and a 5/9/4 intersection, both ranked at 11), consider the one without the six or eight.

Why? Sixes and eight's can be big liabilities. First, the robber is particularly drawn to sixes and eight's, no surprise here. Second, as sixes and eight's attract more people, it will be more crowded and harder to expand around them. Third, if a hex around one of your intersections without the six or eight draws the robber, it will do less damage, as it will have to be put on a hex with lesser production capability. In general, sixes and eight's are best for people who plan to draw a lot of cards, so you can have some knights ready to move the robber off.

A settlement with an intersection with one good number and two bad numbers will be practically useless when the robber is placed on the good number. (Isaac Kuo )

4) Placement of settlements around a hex (or how to attract the robber). A big decision is where to place a second settlement on a hex. If there is only one settlement already on a hex, you usually have a choice: build at the opposite corner (blocking the hex off from any future settlement), or build two away from the first settlement, leaving a third location open on that hex. What you decide is a major factor on whether the robber visits you or not.

Blocking off a hex could be an advantage if you can restrict that resource to other players (this can be a substantial advantage on a rare resource, or a resource that everyone needs for their particular strategy). A disadvantage is that you decrease your own expansion potential. Potentially a bigger disadvantage is that you will appear to create a monopoly, and draw the robber (see problems with this in the Overall Strategies section above). Because of the problem of the robber showing up more on a hex in your sole control, if you block off a hex you should seriously consider doing it only on hexes where another player has the first settlement.

Try not to place both settlements around a single good producing spot. Besides probably reducing expansion capability, this makes that spot a prime target for the robber. (Isaac Kuo )

The alternative is to place a second settlement two vertices away from the first, thus leaving a third location for a settlement open on that hex. You should figure out which one is applicable to your strategy. For example, if you are going for an Ore/Grain strategy, you probably won't be the one to get that third position on the hex, if your neighbor is a Wood/Clay player and can pump out a settlement faster, and so maybe you should just block it off. However, if there won't even be a race to the third spot, you might want to save it for yourself. You may not want to get three of your own settlements around a single hex, otherwise it may become the robber's home.

If there are two different players already on a hex, and a third position is open, seriously consider building there. It is very hard for the robber to stay on a hex with three players who all want him off. And fewer players will place a robber there in the first place.

5) Other players. If you place first and put your first settlement on that great eight Ore hex, don't depend on that six Wheat hex being available when you place your second settlement. When going first, your strategy might have to be more flexible as everyone will be placing all the rest of their settlements before you. In this case, you may not be able to figure out your strategy until you actually place your second settlement. (Isaac Kuo corrected me on this one)

Just like in the stock market, there are big advantages in being a contrarian. For example, I love being in a game where everyone but me is playing an ore-grain or card builder strategy: I get my pick of wood and brick hexes at the beginning for my wood/brick strategy, I can outrun them to good production spots by building roads faster, and I have an easy job of getting the longest road. They are all competing for second.

Other players also determine your expansion capability. Make sure you are not cut off from future ports or other resources you might need, or from being able to expand. (Isaac Kuo ) This is especially important on crowded boards. Watch out placing next to other players or groups of players, especially Wood-Brick players, who could expand and block you off. Note if you are a Wood-Brick player yourself, it might not be such a bad idea to place next to the Ore-Grain players.

Don't sacrifice higher value spots just because someone else is already there. As stated above, it can be very useful to be on the same hex (especially higher-value hexes) as someone else (or even two other people), as it will be much harder for the robber to stay on those hexes.

Don't place your initial settlements just to screw other players. I read one guide where the author said the first settlement is for optimizing production, and the second to hurt other players (grabbing a port s/he needs, etc.). Remember, your goal is not to have a particular player lose, it is to have you win. You are not going to win by sacrificing your production to hurt someone else. Maybe the other person(s) you target will lose too, but you will fall on the sword to get it done, and probably wind up letting a third person win (who presumably focused on a placement for optimal production in the beginning and was ahead of you both). If you can place a settlement and screw someone at the same time, then great, go for it. A much better strategy is to convince someone else to screw the first player. This is not to say you shouldn't work against other players, but don't start the race with a broken leg (note to self: enough with the metaphors already).

6) Distribution of numbers. Two hexes each with a five will produce the same number of resources on the average as two hexes with a four and a six. However, the distribution will be different. Settlements on a smaller selection of numbers mean that you will get a lot of resources clumped together, while settlements on a larger selection of numbers means that you will get resources spread out more. Both have their advantages and disadvantages.

The same number on two resources that are commonly used together (for example, wood and clay) can be very useful, as they can immediately be used and less port trading will be required (Isaac Kuo) ).

However, having a lot of production centers on the same numbers means that some turns you will get a lot of resources, and it is more likely you will be stuck with over seven cards when a seven is rolled (or over ten cards in a 5-6 player game, if you use that rule).

Also, consider placing your settlements/cities on numbers so production matches your ports. For example, if you use a 2:1 port, having two settlements or two cities on a hex for that resource will allow you to trade more easily. This also means that if you have a 2:1 port for a resource, you don't necessarily need a settlement and a city on the same hex as you will produce three of that resource (unless you need one of that resource itself). (David Grabiner )

7) Road Placement. Decide to where you want to build. New people playing the game usually place their roads towards high value hexes, and then kick themselves because they are taken before they get there, and as it is usually so crowded around high value hexes they have no where else to go and they wind up building in the opposite direction. If you want to be more sure, build towards the sea, and ports. Not too many people start there, you will need a port, and you may be able to pick up a settlement or two on the way.

If you want to risk building inland, then you need to do the homework: figure out how many settlements are left to be placed and if you were the other people, where would you put them. Take your time in the initial setup, there are no time limits. If you don't want to go through this trouble (and other people saying "come on and place already"), build out. This may not be possible if you are placing first.

Remember, Wood-Brick people will build faster. Take into account your road-building capability, and of others near you. If you are Wood-Brick and an in a good position to build inwards (you have supply of wood and brick, and your turn placement is optimal), utilize your strength.

8) Connecting Settlements. If you are going for the longest road, you will need to connect your initial settlements eventually. If you are not going for the longest road, don't worry about it. It is usually more advantageous to wait to connect your settlements, if you possibly can. In either case, it is optimal to point your first roads at two different future settlement locations, so you can beat other people there. Note if you play it safe and point both towards your third settlement location, thinking you only need one more road to connect them, you will be one road behind for your fourth settlement. If you connect your two settlements, you will be two roads behind for your fourth settlement.

It is much harder to get blocked in when your settlements are in two vastly different locations. This is especially important for Ore-Grain people, who may have to wait a bit until they can build roads.

EARLY GAME

1) Grow! How fast you grow is exponential, not linear. In a linear growth mode, you would receive (on the average) the same amount of resources each turn. In Settler's, "investing" production to build more production centers (settlements and cities) leads to an exponential growth rate. It's how compound interest works, and why if you invest a little early on in the game you can get a huge advantage later. Even a small numerical advantage in production in the beginning of the game can result in an inordinately large production compared to other players later in the game. (Note that the rate of exponential growth decreases as the game progresses, as the "best" intersections are settled or converted to cities, leaving only the lower-value intersections remaining for new production centers. Even though the rate of exponential growth decreases, this growth is still exponential and should be taken into account.) You have probably noticed where in a lot of games the leader(s) move out farther and farther ahead, and those behind can't seem to catch up. This is why.

I would argue this is the MOST important concept of the game. It is a major factor (arguably the most important factor) in the initial setup, and also determines what your first few turns look like. Simply put, BUILD PRODUCTION CENTERS in the first few turns, and build them in areas that are relatively high in production value. You do not want to be caught behind another player in the exponential growth race.

In the early game, don't bother with constructing the longest road, building the largest army, exploring unknown hexes in Seefahrers scenarios, etc. Your main goal at the beginning should be to increase production. (Note that if building production centers cannot be done in your turn, it may be advantageous to buy cards, build roads for future use, start exploring, etc., just to keep the robber away from an ever-increasing hand. However, this should be treated as a fallback plan.)

For example, consider the player who wants to go to a single-hex island early in the game, to get the extra victory points. In one Seefahrers scenario it costs three ships to get to a single-hex island, and then you need to build a settlement that only borders on that one hex. That is a total card cost of ten (six for the three ships, and four for the settlement). Let's see, say the hex produces on a ten, that is once every 12 turns. That means you will get back your investment in 120 turns. Not a good idea early in the game. The moral is keep your eye on production the first few turns.

2) Contrary to popular belief, the numbers thrown on the dice do not "even out" over the course of the game (well maybe literally, but not in their effect). Numbers coming up early in the game are much more important than later in the game, due to the exponential growth rate. That resource you get early on, if invested into more production, will result in even more resources. This means the robber is also more important early in the game. If the robber lands on someone early in the game, its effect can be far worse than later; it takes not only that particular resource, but robs that player of all the future resources it would have led to if invested.

3) "Clumping" of numbers. Numbers on the dice always seem to clump together at times, and never seem to be rolled at other times . A famous example of clumping in real life (and how we perceive it) can be demonstrated by convincing two of your friends to perform a little experiment. Have one toss a coin 100 times and write down the results. Have the other write up a "random" assortment of 100 heads and tails that they came up with in their head. Don't let them tell you which person used which method, instead tell them you will figure it out. Ninety-five percent of the time, the person flipping the coin will generate a series of seven or more heads or tails in a row. You almost never see this in the list the other person makes up, as they invariable think that seven or more in a row will never happen. (This works even better in large groups of people, like beginning statistics classes :)

In terms of what to expect in the game, similar clumping of production numbers will occur. Just like the person making up the heads/tails, this will seem extremely unlikely (or really bad/good luck), but it isn't; what seems to be really strange clumping is in fact quite common. You usually only remember clumping if it is really bad for you (or someone whines a lot about it), but watch your next few games carefully. It will happen in practically every one. If this clumping works against you in the early game, you can really be screwed, because you can fall way behind in the exponential growth race.

You have to assume weird clumping will happen, and plan for it. Consider spreading out your production centers in the early game onto different numbers so this has less of a chance of happening to you. Personally, I don't pay too much attention to this myself as I think other factors are usually more important, but others swear by it. I think it would be more important if you are playing a strategy that emphasizes cities (i.e. the ore-grain strategy), as you will have less production centers (and by extension, be located next to fewer production numbers) to begin with, and therefore are at a greater risk from clumping.

END GAME

1) Get into the habit of counting other players' victory points every turn, and figuring out how they will probably act to get what they need to win. This may seem obvious, but most people do not do it.

2) Don't be a target. Hide points to near the end if possible (do you really want the longest road with five segments, and being ahead in points that early on?). Or wait to put out that last knight if you can.

PORTS

1) You will probably need a port to win the game, or a lotta luck. Some strategies are better served with a 3:1 port, while others by a specific resource port. Make sure you know how you will get them. Don't stress too much over ports early on, they are usually more important in the mid- and endgame (unless a resource is particularly rare). But don't get blocked from reaching one, either.

2) Note that many players think that 3:1 ports are inferior to 2:1 ports. This isn't true. Different ports are good for different situations. Think about which kind you need. People who advocate one kind over another often just play with one particular strategy. For example, 2:1 ore and grain ports seem to be particularly popular, as players using the ore-grain or card-builder strategies really need them later on in the game.

You may not want a 2:1 port if you just have one source for that resource, even if it is a good source. It will draw the robber. Conversely, watch for other people in which this happens when considering where to place the robber.

3) A popular strategy is to go for a port on the first turn, which means you are on an intersection with only two hexes that produce, at most. It had better be worth it, because it is going to have to offset the increased production of someone who placed two inland settlements, with a higher total production value. Sometimes ports are just screaming to have a settlement placed on them at the initial setup (for example, an intersection with an ore port on an eight ore hex). Expect the robber to show up at hexes like these.

4) If a particular resource looks like it's going to be extremely rare, it may be worthwhile to start off with a port, especially if you're the last player and can coordinate a good combination of spots. (Isaac Kuo )

Even if you don't start off with a port, you may want to place one of your initial settlements near a port to get it later. If you know what kind of port your strategy or initial setup needs (like a particular 2:1 port, or a 3:1 port because you expect to have a lot of varied resources), then try to place near that particular port. However, be prepared to change your strategy. Also, examine what kind of ports other people are near, this may give you additional clues about their strategies.

5) Remember, as ports are on water hexes, it is a lot easier to block them off or reserve them - just build a road to the port area, and sometimes all you need is one more road on the other side to block that particular port off.

LARGEST ARMY / LONGEST ROAD

1) You need either the largest army, longest road, or a lotta luck to win. While you should probably not start building them right away, you should figure out early in the game which one you are eventually going to shoot for, and how you will do it.

The size of the board and number of players could influence your decision. For example, it could take a different strategy to get the longest road on a crowded board, compared to a wide-open board. On a wide-open board, the player who can pump out the most roads can probably will get it, meaning it probably easier playing with a wood-brick strategy.

On a crowded board, the number of hex sides is the determining factor, and the player who can get to those faster will probably get it. The nod could still go to the wood-brick player here, as they can usually get to areas faster, but other factors might be more important in this situation, such as the starting location. However, this doesn't mean that the longest road is "harder" to get on a crowded board; after all, only one person can get it on any board. It just takes a different approach.

2) Note that the longest road and largest army are worth more if the other players aren't trying for them. The more roads/knights that you have to buy, the worse the investment. (AllenDoum ) This could be more of a factor in determining which one to go for than the type of board and number of players. This means it might actually be preferable to go for the one that you normally would not, if there is going to be a lot of competition (for example, longest road when you are playing an Ore/Grain strategy).

3) If going for the longest road, don't make too many "side trips" with your roads. You only have 15 in the basic game. Remember, if you are the first person to get a road 15 in length, it cannot be taken away from you (unless someone splits it, as shown below).

This is much less important in Seefahrers, when the longest road could theoretically be 30 long (it includes ships). This also means that getting the longest road in a Seefahrers scenario can be much more costly if a race develops, a factor to consider when deciding between getting the Longest Road or Largest Army.

4) Remember if an opponent builds a settlement in the middle of your road network, your routes are split in two for purposes of determining longest trade route. (Matt Gardner ) Also remember that no one can split your ship lines.

5) If you know you are not going for longest road, then building settlements off triangle forks saves you having to build two roads for each settlement, and instead allows to you build three roads (instead of four) to get to two settlements. (The Maus <*mDEorsed@is2.nyLETEu.edu>)

DEVELOPMENT CARDS

1) Victory points are great when you get them, but are not to be counted on at the endgame. There are seven victory point cards in a 36-card deck in the original (first and second edition) Mayfair version, which means you are drawing an average of five (at a cost of 15 production cards!) to get a point, and ten (30 cards!) to get two. It is much easier to get two points with far less than 30 production cards the old-fashioned way: build something. It gets worse with the Kosmos or later Mayfair versions (five victory point cards), diluting the mix even further.

2) Don't use knights too early. Save them if you can to keep the robber off of your hexes (play BEFORE you roll the dice in this case). However, don't get caught with too many development cards, as you can only play one per turn. This is especially important if going for the largest army -- get those knights out before the endgame.

3) Watch out buying too many development cards early. If you draw a victory point card (or two) at the beginning, it can really hurt your future development chances, as they don't produce. However, the rest of the cards CAN produce for you (at least indirectly). (Aaron D. Fuegi ).

4) Save that Road Building card to the end if you can, if you are going for the longest road. It can be a great surprise when you play it on the last turn. It is also great to use at the beginning, to save the four resource cards and pump up that exponential growth rate a bit.

5) If you can't build anything, consider buying a card if you can. You will lower your card count and keep the robber away. Also, it is a great way to "store" resources for use later.

How much is a development card worth on the average, just in resource cards? If you assume that a knight card is worth one (from getting one resource from a player), road building is worth four, monopolies are worth three (this just evens the card out, of course you could get a few more or a few less), and discovery is worth two, then each development card is worth 1.3 cards in the (first and second edition) Mayfair deck. That is for a cost of three. Of course, that doesn't count victory cards, getting the largest army, etc. If you play a resource card at an optimal time, it can be worth a LOT more to you.

6) It is hard to get the robber off of you without Knights. Remember, a seven comes up only once every six turns on the average.

7) Your chance of drawing a particular type of card is as follows, in 36-card combined Basic/5-6 Player Expansion set (this is also the same as the first or second edition Mayfair Basic deck):

Knight: 56% Victory point: 19% Discovery: 8% Monopoly: 8% Road Building: 8%

Meaning, your chance of drawing any specific card, other than a knight, is pretty low.

TRADING

People seem pretty split on trading. It seems that some will only trade kicking and screaming, as they see big problems with helping other players. Others don't seem to mind, as long as they make sure to look out for number one. I have always tried to trade as much as I can in the early game, primarily out of one big fear -- if I don't trade with Player X, Player X is going to trade with Player Y. In this case, Player X and Player Y will have a better distribution of resource cards (and hence will build more) than me. This is especially bad if X or Y is an adjacent and direct competitor with me for future resources. If you don't trade with X, someone else will. This leads me to take the position that trading is necessary, and instead to focus on the question of how to make the trade as advantageous to you (and as disadvantageous to others) as possible, as long as it is going to happen anyway.

The benefits from trading are not always equally distributed. I would take the position that they seldom are. So how does one make sure they are distributed more in your favor then the other person?

1) Try to trade as close to your turn as possible, and preferably on your turn. Why? If you trade on your turn, you will have a much greater chance of using that card you just got.

For example, you need one more grain to make your city, so you trade a wool to someone for a grain. Trading on your turn means you KNOW where that grain is going -- to your city. However, the other person does not know they are actually going to use that wool on their turn. They might be trying for a settlement, and when their turn comes around do not have a clay. Or maybe the robber stole a card. Or a monopoly card was played. Or they wound up producing a wool themselves on that 12 they didn't think they would roll. In any case, when their turn comes around, they may or may not be using that wool for something. If they don't use that wool, that trade was a bust for them, and you were the one who got the greater benefit from that trade.

The farther from your turn you make a trade, the greater the chance that something will happen that will make that card you got worthless, or of losing the card entirely. And that means the other person probably got more benefit out of that trade than you.

If the person the who plays the turn ahead of you is trying to make a trade with you, try to wait until your turn instead, if you can. They will have to wait another turn to produce what they wanted. Of course, if they really want to they will trade 4 to 1 or through a port, and then you are stuck...

To stop a trade, you can always promise the player who turn it ISN'T that you will trade with them when their turn comes around, by arguing how they will benefit from this and how the player whose turn it is will be hurt, by the reasoning above.

2) Conversely, try to trade with others who are farther away from their turn, all other things being equal. Of course, you don't have much of a choice if it is not your turn, as you have to trade with the person whose turn it is.

Comments 1 and 2 are probably a lot less useful for those of you who play with the Kosmos or (later edition) Mayfair 5-6 player build rules, where anyone can build on any turn.

3) Trade with people who are losing, or are no threat to you. This is a no-brainer.

4) Trade early on as much as possible. You don't want to fall behind on that exponential growth race.

I once played a game in which another player made a four-to-one trade with the bank early in the game, rather than trade one-to-one with me. I thought she was nuts, but then I was a little biased. However, in order for me not to have the benefit, she fell on the sword herself. I made a two-to-one port trade to get that resource instead, and was therefore two cards ahead of her. The real winners were the other two players. Losing this many production cards this early on did not help her growth rate at all, and I wound up winning in a very close battle that she might have very well won instead.

5) Remember, you can always trade for stuff besides cards, though it isn't binding. How much is it worth to someone for you to build a road and block off a potential port of their immediate competitor? This is useful when you REALLY need a card or cards and have no cards to trade that the other person wants. And you can always trade wood and brick in unequal trades to the person whose turn it is, to stop someone from getting the longest road (or whatever) when you can't build there yourself.

6) Think of other players as 1:1 ports.

7) It isn't necessarily bad to trade two cards to someone for one you really need (2:1 trade), it just sounds that way. You are saving cards as your only other options was presumably 3:1 at a port or 4:1 with the bank. If it was a 3:1 port, you are one ahead. As the other player gained one card too, they are also one ahead. You are both ahead in my book, and the real losers are the players who were not in on the deal.

You are probably trying to figure out the catch here. You are correct, there is one. The above only assumes the number of cards are important, not the type. The problem comes in if the other player was also planning to do a port or bank trade to get that resource you just gave them. That means they are not just one ahead, they might be two or three ahead. In a worst-case scenario they were going to need to do a bank trade at 4:1 for both of those resources you just gave them, meaning they are now SEVEN ahead (it cost them one card instead of eight).

It is up to you to figure out how many cards they are really saving. If you can appeal to their greed and give them two cards they don't really need, or that they could have traded 1:1 for themselves, then go for it. In general, try to do 2:1 trades with people who are behind, those will use those extra cards to screw someone else, those who were going to do a 1:1 trade with someone else to get those resources, those who were not going to need to do port or bank trades to get those resources, those whose turn it just was and therefore have to wait the longest (see 2 above) and have a good chance to get those resources you gave them anyway, those who already have a lot of cards and may attract the robber because of your trade, and of course those who are not just going to use those cards to hurt you. If you do it right, it is a very powerful tactic. If you mess it up, it could come back to bite you.

In most cases, a generally good 2:1 trade with someone is if you give them two resources for which they have a 2:1 port. It's a great trade for them, and they often jump at it. They will trade them in to get one card. So now they wound up trading a card to you, for two cards, which they converted back into one in their port. It's the same as making a 1:1 trade with you for the resource they really wanted, which they might have made with someone else anyway. Or think of it as you "borrowing" their port for a turn. And you are still one ahead. Just make sure they actually will trade them in at their port, or you might have the same problem as above.

8) It's amazing how many people don't have any particular idea of what to build their next turn. For those people who just react to what cards are in their hand in deciding what to build (instead of going out and getting what they need), you can force their strategy a bit. Want them to build a settlement instead of that road that is going to cut off your port? Make sure they get a grain and wool to go along with that brick and wood. Or make sure they draw cards instead of building those ships to that island you want.

9) Don't blindly follow trade embargoes on the person that is ahead. Chances are, they were set up by a single person for a reason that will benefit them the most, or were set up too early. This is your opportunity to make some very good trades with people that no one else is trading with. I assume you will make sure they won't win because of that trade, although.

ROBBER / PIRATE

1) As stated in many places above, try not to build around a hex in such a way that it will attract the robber.

2) Watch out where you put the robber. You might need that resource, or suddenly create a shortage. Consider putting it on a resource you already have a supply for, and don't have to trade for. And of course, on someone who is ahead, or someone who has a resource you need. If you put it on a hex with fewer number of people, or a person who does not have any extra development cards (no knights) it will stay there longer.

Consider putting it on a hex so that you are left as the sole or major producer of a commodity. (Greg Aleknevicus) ) See notes on the Monopoly / Cartel strategies above for more info on this.

3) This pirate's most important function is to restrict ship building around its hex. You can completely block off an island in this way. Your main goal should be to stop others from getting victory points on the islands, not to get the most number of cards that you can. The cards are gravy.

--------------------------------

This guide is a compilation of many people's ideas. People's comments are included as separate paragraphs, with attribution (hopefully all of them). If the paragraph is un-attributed, I wrote it. That is not to say I came up with the idea; obviously I didn't invent the ore-grain strategy and other common ideas. If I have thoughts on other people's comments I add to the paragraph after the attribution. Using this method, you can email whoever came up with the appropriate idea to discuss it further. I don't know if any programs can find email addresses inside posts, so I played it safe. Remove the "DE" and "LETE" in each email address.

Please email me with your comments, other tips, or criticisms to macDEpherson@gLETEmail.com If you don't want your name and email included in later versions, let me know. Later versions will also be posted on rec.games.board and on http://settlersofcatan.blogspot.com.

For the next version, I really need info on the Stadt and Ritter, Cheops, and Alexander expansions.

Yeah, I know no one is going to remember all of this. But maybe certain bits will be useful.

This is for all experience levels. For those of you that think you don't need help on the basic stuff, you can probably skip a lot of this guide. But remember, Richard Feynman used to teach freshman physics because he said it was essential to go back to the basics every once in a while.

You are free to copy, publish, edit, change, or reprint this guide in any form, as long as you reference the original source (currently at http://settlersofcatan.blogspot.com/2004/06/june-6-2004-strategy-guide.html).

November, 1997 This version derived from a post and replies made on rec.games.board.

January 13, 1999 Added new strategies, more emphasis on the robber, more tips on trading, and various odds and ends.

January 18, 1999 Major editing. Added info on the Wood-Brick strategy, info on six and eight hexes, formula for ranking intersections.

July 29, 1999 Minor edits and changes in overall strategy. Other odds and ends added. Updated some email addresses.

June 6, 2004 Wow it's been five years already. No real changes, just my new email address and a change in the reprinting conditions. I was a lot more anal back then.

Mark's Board Game Strategy Guides

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Settlers of Catan Strategy and Tactics Guide

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